Sector-Wide Risk Analysis · 2026

The Case for Secure Infrastructure

Public watchdogs rely on trailing indicators—warning us only after a crisis has hit. These findings show how governance risk becomes visible in public filings, and why arts nonprofits need continuous oversight infrastructure rather than an annual audit scramble.

The Cost of Reactive Governance
79.3%

of scored arts nonprofits show elevated vulnerability, lacking the internal safeguards to prevent institutional drift.

3 at terminal risk (3+ years)
2,822 at emerging risk (1-2 years)
624 showing elevated strain

organizations caught at various stages of the classic trailing failure pattern (declining revenue + rising executive comp).

25%

show top-heavy compensation disparities that often trigger preventable board disputes and regulatory friction.

Analyzing the Trailing Indicators

To understand why proactive infrastructure is necessary, we must analyze the public data trail left behind by traditional governance failures. Each organization here receives three component scores—financial resilience, governance risk, program scale. This data comes from IRS 990 filings and state registries, representing the exact reactive data that regulators and donors use to judge organizations after the fact.

Full methodology and data sources →

The Current State of the Sector

Stable
2,757 (20.74%)
Developing
1,254 (9.43%)
Priority Review
9,283 (69.83%)

Exemplary and Stable indicate orgs operating with sound financial and governance signals. Developing means warning signs are visible in public filings—a critical moment to implement oversight guardrails. Priority Review indicates converging risk signals that require immediate, structured mediation. UNKNOWN means insufficient public data is available.

Score Distribution

This visualizes the distribution of overall scores across all scored organizations. Scores of 75 and above earn the "Exemplary" tier, which is why it remains an aspirational standard.

Systemic Risk by Region

Sort A-Z Sort by Orgs ↓ Sort by Risk
CA 1,927 orgs
Stable+
19.5%
Priority
73.6%
Developing
6.9%
Med. Score
24
NY 1,424 orgs
Stable+
14.4%
Priority
75.4%
Developing
10.3%
Med. Score
21
PA 640 orgs
Stable+
18.6%
Priority
70.3%
Developing
11.1%
Med. Score
25
MA 565 orgs
Stable+
23.7%
Priority
68.3%
Developing
8.0%
Med. Score
28
FL 537 orgs
Stable+
19.6%
Priority
72.4%
Developing
8.0%
Med. Score
25
OH 519 orgs
Stable+
25.4%
Priority
62.0%
Developing
12.5%
Med. Score
32
WA 446 orgs
Stable+
26.0%
Priority
63.9%
Developing
10.1%
Med. Score
31
MI 436 orgs
Stable+
24.8%
Priority
64.9%
Developing
10.3%
Med. Score
30
ID 40 orgs
Stable+
15.0%
Priority
80.0%
Developing
5.0%
Med. Score
20
WY 39 orgs
Stable+
25.6%
Priority
61.5%
Developing
12.8%
Med. Score
32
NH 38 orgs
Stable+
23.7%
Priority
65.8%
Developing
10.5%
Med. Score
29
WV 38 orgs
Stable+
29.0%
Priority
60.5%
Developing
10.5%
Med. Score
34
RI 29 orgs
Stable+
24.1%
Priority
72.4%
Developing
3.5%
Med. Score
27
US 6 orgs
Stable+
50.0%
Priority
50.0%
Developing
0.0%
Med. Score
48
AL 1 orgs
Stable+
100.0%
Priority
0.0%
Developing
0.0%
Med. Score
90
OR 1 orgs
Stable+
0.0%
Priority
100.0%
Developing
0.0%
Med. Score
5
Highest concentration of risk
DC
93.1% Developing or Priority Review
Strongest governance signals
ND
32.1% Stable+ across 56 orgs
National Governance Heatmap
Healthy
Developing
Priority Review
Opacity: Density of Organizations

States ranked by elevated risk concentration

The right side of the ranking is where the strongest intervention case usually starts. Only top 12 states shown.

Where Board Disputes Begin

Comp-to-revenue distribution

Without immutable records and structured mediation, compensation is a primary trigger for internal conflict. The long tail above 40% represents organizations at extreme risk for leadership disputes.

Sector Trajectory Rollup

Organizations are not static points in time; they are moving along distinct operational trajectories. By grouping trailing indicators into recognized patterns, we can identify systemic risks and apply proactive infrastructure before a pattern becomes a crisis. Here is a rollup of the current trajectories active across the sector:

Steady State

7,700 orgs
Current State

Current State

Trajectory analysis pending...

Remedy

The Remedy

Remedy path pending...

View Organizations in this Trajectory →

Insufficient Data

2,032 orgs
Current State

Current State

Trajectory analysis pending...

Remedy

The Remedy

Remedy path pending...

View Organizations in this Trajectory →

Structural Deficit

1,554 orgs
Current State

Current State

This card represents the disconnect between outward success and internal mathematics. It is the card of the magician who dazzles the audience with fir...

Remedy

The Remedy

When reversed, it indicates "the hard pivot." The organization has finally stopped pretending. They are making painful cuts to their public programmin...

View Organizations in this Trajectory →

Mission Drift

712 orgs
Current State

Current State

This card represents the loss of a true north. It is the card of the shapeshifter, constantly changing colors to please whoever happens to be holding ...

Remedy

The Remedy

When reversed, it signifies "finding the anchor." The organization has boldly turned down a massive grant because it didn't align with their core miss...

View Organizations in this Trajectory →

Governance Lag

319 orgs
Current State

Current State

This card represents the perilous thrill of rapid success outstripping the safety net. It is the card of the "founder's high," where money and scale a...

Remedy

The Remedy

When reversed, it indicates "governance catching up." The organization has paused its aggressive growth specifically to recruit independent board memb...

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Compensation Escalation

277 orgs
Current State

Current State

Trajectory analysis pending...

Remedy

The Remedy

Remedy path pending...

View Organizations in this Trajectory →

Resource Divergence

187 orgs
Current State

Current State

Trajectory analysis pending...

Remedy

The Remedy

Remedy path pending...

View Organizations in this Trajectory →

Programmatic Contraction

162 orgs
Current State

Current State

This card represents the institution forgetting its own purpose. It is the card of self-preservation, where the machinery of running the nonprofit has...

Remedy

The Remedy

When reversed, it signifies a "return to roots." The organization has recently slashed its administrative overhead and redirected massive amounts of c...

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Institutional Maturation

158 orgs
Current State

Current State

This card represents the highest ideal of nonprofit leadership. It is the card of the master builder who constructs a cathedral they know they will ne...

Remedy

The Remedy

When reversed, it indicates a rare "growth plateau." The organization is perfectly healthy but has become too comfortable, perhaps needing a visionary...

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Founders Trap

106 orgs
Current State

Current State

This card represents the beautiful but tragic sacrifice of a visionary. It is the card of the martyr who loves the organization so much that they refu...

Remedy

The Remedy

When reversed, it indicates a "successful succession." The founder has finally stepped aside, a market-rate executive has been hired, and the board ha...

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Acute Stabilization

66 orgs
Current State

Current State

This card represents survival, awakening, and the hard work of recovery. It is the card of the patient who finally went to the doctor and took the med...

Remedy

The Remedy

When reversed, it indicates a "false dawn" or a "dead cat bounce." The stabilization was a mirage—perhaps a single, massive one-time grant that temp...

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Hollow Shell

20 orgs
Current State

Current State

This card represents the refusal to let go. It is the card of the ghost haunting an empty house, draining the last drops of warmth from a structure th...

Remedy

The Remedy

When reversed, it signifies a "graceful exit." The board has recognized the end of the lifecycle, responsibly spent down the remaining assets, and is ...

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Endowment Ossification

1 orgs
Current State

Current State

This card represents the tragedy of hoarded potential. It is the card of the dragon sleeping on a mountain of gold while the villagers outside starve...

Remedy

The Remedy

When reversed, it indicates a "thaw." The board has boldly decided to increase their endowment draw rate, unlocking capital to launch a massive new pr...

View Organizations in this Trajectory →
View the full trajectory definitions dictionary →

Secure the Floor. Showcase the Ceiling.

For Nonprofit Leaders
Find Your Organization

See your public score, understand what drives it, and add your own context alongside the record.

For Board Members
Assess Your Risk

See your public profile and learn how to contextualize your ledger with your true impact.

For Grantors
Cooperative Oversight

Funders don't fund compliance; they fund impact. Learn how the methodology verifies the foundation so you can fund the mission with confidence.